Crunchfish’s Q2 report largely reinforces the investment case outlined in our previous update, with the company entering the second half of 2026 from a stronger financial and strategic position but still awaiting the commercial agreements needed to validate the long-term revenue potential. The SEK 15m rights issue has strengthened the balance sheet, while continued engagement with payment infrastructure players and central-bank initiatives supports management’s view that discussions are gradually shifting from technical validation toward implementation and commercialisation. At the same time, Crunchfish has broadened the conceptual positioning of its technology through the recently introduced Portable Trust framework and continued to strengthen its IP portfolio. Our rNPV estimate continues to support a potential value of SEK 5 per share, albeit resting on a number of highly speculative assumptions, while we also note that the company is better positioned today than it was a year ago.
Johan Widmark | 2026-08-24 08:00
See intevew with CEO Joachim Samuelsson here (in swedish)
Funding provides room for commercial progress
The completed rights issue provides Crunchfish with improved financial flexibility as several opportunities move further into the commercialisation process. The approximately SEK 15m gross proceeds were raised at SEK 3.00 per share, with the issue ultimately oversubscribed to 120% despite the subscription price being set above the average March trading level. The strong commitments from Chairman Göran Linder through Granitor Growth and CEO Joachim Samuelsson remain an important signal of insider conviction, while participation from other shareholders reduced the dependence on those commitments. With the financing already reflected in our model, the quarter does not materially change our valuation framework. Rather, the funding provides additional runway for Crunchfish to pursue ongoing system-level opportunities where decision cycles remain long and commercial timing inherently difficult to predict.
Focus shift from validation to implementation
Operationally, the most relevant development remains the gradual shift in the character of Crunchfish’s engagements. Management describes discussions as increasingly focused on how Governed Offline should be implemented, governed and commercialised rather than on proving that offline payments can work securely. This is consistent with the progress seen during recent quarters, including the broader NPCI engagement in India and continued participation in central-bank and payment-infrastructure initiatives. During Q2, Crunchfish also participated in Phase 2 of the Digital Pound Lab, adding another institutional reference to its growing set of international engagements. While such initiatives should not be confused with commercial contracts, they continue to strengthen the company’s credibility in a market where regulatory acceptance, integration into existing infrastructure and reference deployments are likely to be critical prerequisites for meaningful adoption.
Broader narrative, but commercial conversion remains key
Crunchfish has also continued to broaden the strategic narrative around its technology. The recently published Rethinking Trust in Payments whitepaper introduces the concept of Portable Trust, positioning Governed Offline as the first practical implementation of a broader architecture in which payment authority can be made independently verifiable and portable beyond an active payment session. Potential applications could eventually extend into delegated and programmable payments, AI-agent transactions and tokenised financial markets. In parallel, the recent U.S. Notice of Allowance for the company’s anti-cloning patent, following positive decisions in Sweden and Europe, further strengthens the IP position around secure client-side execution. We view these developments as supportive rather than transformational at this stage. The central investment question remains whether Crunchfish can convert its increasingly strong technological and institutional positioning into commercial agreements with recurring and economically meaningful revenues. Until that happens, we continue to regard the valuation as fundamentally speculative while noting that the company appears better positioned commercially and financially than it was a year ago.
DISCLAIMER
