Following the strong semaglutide data reported earlier this year, Nanexa’s Q2 update points to continued, albeit unspecified, progress across all three key value tracks: the Moderna collaboration, additional PharmaShell partnerships and the internally developed long-acting semaglutide program. Most importantly, management reiterates that negotiations around PharmaShell within obesity and type 2 diabetes are at an advanced stage and remain highly active, while preparatory development work is being accelerated ahead of a potential agreement. The Moderna collaboration is also progressing according to plan, with testing of PharmaShell-coated mRNA particles now underway, while encouraging results in a separate evaluation agreement have already prompted discussions about expanding that collaboration. With cash providing runway into Q2’27 and capacity investments being prepared for future clinical programmes, Nanexa enters the second half of 2026 from a promising operational position. We continue to see substantial upside from additional deal flow or successful advancement of the semaglutide project, supporting SEK 6 per share as a mid-term target, while reiterating that limited disclosure continues to imply a considerable margin of error in any fundamental valuation approach.
Johan Widmark | 2026-08-28 08:00
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Semaglutide licensing discussions move closer to centre stage
The most important near-term development remains the commercial process around NEX-22 and broader PharmaShell applications within obesity and type 2 diabetes. Management reiterates that licensing negotiations are at an advanced stage and remain highly active, although the timing is ultimately dependent on the counterparties and has been somewhat affected by the summer period. Importantly, Nanexa continues to advance the programme in parallel rather than waiting for a transaction, including additional minipig studies aimed at optimising the formulation and accelerating activities expected early in a future partnership. The previously reported pharmacokinetic data and simulations supporting monthly, bi-monthly and quarterly administration remain central to the value proposition. Management also points to increasing industry interest in less frequent dosing across several therapeutic areas, supported by discussions at DDF and BIO International. In our view, the combination of increasingly mature partner discussions and continued operational preparation makes semaglutide the clearest potential near-term catalyst in the investment case.
Broader PharmaShell pipeline continues to gain traction
Progress outside semaglutide also remains encouraging. The Moderna collaboration is advancing according to plan, with several shell formulations developed and Moderna now testing PharmaShell-coated mRNA particles as a basis for further development by both parties. While the lack of disclosure regarding assets, indications and timelines still limits meaningful risk-adjusted modelling, the active development work provides further confirmation that the collaboration has moved beyond the initial licensing stage. Nanexa also reports positive results in the evaluation agreement signed with another major pharmaceutical company in August 2025, with discussions already underway regarding an expansion of the collaboration while the current evaluation continues. Continued business-development activity, growing industry visibility and an expanding patent portfolio further strengthen the strategic position of PharmaShell. Three new patent applications were filed during the quarter that, if granted, could provide product protection well into the mid-2040s.
Operational scale-up supports a more deal-driven valuation case
Nanexa’s financial position remains adequate for the current development plan, with management guiding to a cash runway into Q2’27. In parallel, the company has begun recruiting within development, manufacturing, quality assurance and alliance management and is preparing additional production capacity capable of supporting material requirements for a complete clinical programme. These investments signal increased operational readiness for both existing collaborations and potential new licensing agreements. The Moderna agreement continues to provide important platform validation and substantial long-term optionality, while the semaglutide programme has evolved into a more immediate commercial opportunity and the separate large-pharma evaluation adds another potential route to value creation. The investment case therefore remains fundamentally option-driven, but with several of those options now appearing closer to potential commercial inflection points. We therefore continue to see meaningful upside if additional agreements materialise or the semaglutide programme advances further, supporting SEK 6 per share as a mid-term target, while stressing that the valuation remains subject to a substantial margin of error.
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