Long overdue, Nanexa has finally signed a global, exclusive license and collaboration agreement with Novo for PharmaShell in peptide-based treatments for obesity, type 2 diabetes and other cardiometabolic diseases. The deal is worth up to EUR 1.165bn plus a low single-digit royalty on sales. Larger than we expected, EUR 615m of the total consists of upfront, development and regulatory payments, plus EUR 550m in milestones linked to product sales. However, based on mgmt’s soft guidance, we estimate the upfront at a modest EUR 15m. The deal covers up to five programmes targeting monthly or quarterly dosing, with Novo leading global development and commercialisation. The Moderna collaboration and other PharmaShell evaluations add further optionality, as PharmaShell outside Novo’s field remains free to license. Our new risk-adjusted valuation arrives at about SEK 14 per share for the Novo deal, which together with Moderna and the wider PharmaShell platform adds up to about SEK 17 per share, a significant increase from our previous SEK 6 target. But the upfront, the royalty rate and the timelines are not disclosed, so the margin of error remains considerable.
Johan Widmark | 2026-09-28 08:00
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Novo agreement resolves the key near-term catalyst
The long-awaited licensing process within obesity and type 2 diabetes has concluded with Novo as partner. The size of the upfront is not disclosed, but management describes the structure as relatively front-loaded. The deal compares favourably with recent drug-delivery agreements in the field. Camurus’ 2025 agreement with Lilly carried USD 290m in pre-commercial payments across four compounds. Ascendis’ 2024 agreement with Novo carried up to USD 285m for its lead programme, and Novo terminated that agreement earlier this month. In our view, the deal validates PharmaShell as a commercially relevant platform for less frequent dosing of already-approved peptides. This also implies a shorter and less risky development path than for new molecules.
Moderna and the wider platform add further optionality
The Novo deal only covers peptides within cardiometabolic indications. That leaves the Moderna collaboration and PharmaShell’s broader potential untouched. Moderna is testing PharmaShell-coated mRNA particles, and an ongoing evaluation with another major pharmaceutical company has already led to discussions about an expanded collaboration. We value the Moderna agreement (USD 3m upfront, up to USD 500m in milestones, tiered single-digit royalties) at about SEK 0.7 per share, reflecting its early stage and limited disclosure. We also assign about SEK 2.3 per share to future licensing deals, assuming around four additional agreements outside Novo’s field over the coming decade. We believe the Novo agreement materially improves Nanexa’s negotiating position and visibility in these discussions.
Sum-of-the-parts points to around SEK 17 per share
Our valuation combines a full risk-adjusted DCF of the Novo agreement with simplified estimates for the Moderna deal and the wider platform. On our assumptions, the Novo deal is worth about SEK 14.3 per share. The key assumptions include first sales around 2031; an 18.5% cumulative probability of reaching the market (including the risk that Novo reprioritises, as it did with Ascendis); 30% of Novo’s GLP-1 patients at peak; a global net price of about EUR 2,000 per patient-year at launch; a 2.0–2.75% royalty ladder; a 16% discount rate. In total we arrive at around SEK 17 per share. The value is most sensitive to the probability of success and to net pricing. While our assumed upfront at EUR 15m might seem low, it has limited impact on the overall rNPV, while each half percentage point of royalty is worth about SEK 1.4 per share. Following the share price reaction, a large part of the value of the Novo agreement now appears to be priced in. Further upside mainly depends on clinical progress in the Novo programmes, clarity on royalty and upfront, and new platform agreements.
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