Following the license agreement with Moderna in Q4’25, Nanexa continues to advance along three parallel value tracks: the Moderna collaboration, additional PharmaShell license deals and the internally developed long-acting semaglutide program. Q1’26 was marked by highly encouraging preclinical data, including a potential quarterly dosing profile, strengthening the commercial relevance of PharmaShell. At the same time, a significantly improved financial position, supported by a debt set-off issue, extends the runway into 2027. While the increased share count introduces dilution, we view this as broadly offset by the strengthened value proposition following the quarterly depot data. We continue to see substantial upside from further deal flow or successful advancement of the semaglutide project, supporting SEK 6 per share as a mid-term target, but reiterate that the limited disclosure still implies a considerable margin of error in a fundamental valuation approach.
Johan Widmark | 2026-04-30 08:00
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Moderna collaboration continues to anchor the case
The Moderna agreement remains the cornerstone of Nanexa’s investment case, representing a clear validation of the PharmaShell platform from a global leader in mRNA therapeutics. The collaboration, covering up to five undisclosed assets with up to USD 500m in potential milestones and tiered royalties, continues to progress according to plan. However, the lack of visibility on timelines, indications and prioritisation still constrains any meaningful risk-adjusted modelling, and management expects the first milestone no earlier than 2027. At the same time, management highlights continued strong engagement in business development, supported by increased industry presence at key events such as the JP Morgan Healthcare Conference and BIO Europe.Semaglutide data strengthens near-term commercial relevance
The most important development in Q1 is the continued strengthening of the semaglutide program. Following already strong monthly dosing data in January, new preclinical results presented in March indicate the potential for once-quarterly administration with a highly stable pharmacokinetic profile. If confirmed, this would represent a meaningful step-change in the GLP-1 landscape, where improved tolerability and adherence remain key commercial drivers. The combination of low peak-to-trough variability and extended duration positions PharmaShell as a differentiated solution versus existing therapies. Management confirms that dialogue with potential partners is ongoing and that interest has increased following these results. As such, the semaglutide project now emerges as an increasingly tangible and nearer-term value driver relative to the longer-dated Moderna program.Extended runway – valuation remains option-driven
Nanexa’s financial position has improved significantly with cash amounting to SEK 73m at the end of Q1, while the subsequent SEK 20m debt conversion further strengthens the balance sheet and supports funding visibility into 2027. This reduces near-term financing risk and enables continued investment in both R&D and capacity expansion. The Moderna deal carries significant headline value, but key parameters remain undisclosed, while the semaglutide program now shows increasingly compelling data, but is still at a preclinical stage. The investment case therefore continues to resemble a portfolio of embedded options: a long-dated partnered mRNA program and a rapidly advancing GLP-1 depot project with growing commercial traction. While the higher share count introduces dilution, this is in our view broadly balanced by the improved commercial profile following the recent semaglutide data. We therefore continue to see meaningful upside should additional deals materialise or the semaglutide project advance further, supporting SEK 6 per share as a mid-term target, while emphasising that the margin of error remains substantial.
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