Late Wednesday evening KebNi announced that it has raised SEK 29.6m from a group of professional investors, including the two largest of the existing shareholders, and 19 other investors. The price of SEK 1.20 per share represents an 8% discount, making it a quick and cost effective way to secure financing. Combined with the second volume order for IMUs from Saab in June, the path is now cleared to materialise the ramp-up in sales we’re projecting in 2023-2026. We now find support for a fair value to SEK 1.7-2.7 (1.9-2.9) per share in 12-24m, with Saab volume orders feeding through to sales growth and eventually positive cash flow as the primary catalyst for the share.
Johan Widmark | 2023-08-10 14:00
Financing issue now resolved
The construction of the production facility for IMUs in Karlskoga and other expansion initiatives during winter and spring, resulted in faster than expected cost increases that put the spotlight on financing earlier in summer. With a directed share issue of 24.7m new B shares at a price of SEK 1.20 SEK per share, bringing in SEK 29.6 before costs, this issue has now been resolved. Investors include renowned names such as Tedde Jeansson and Erik Mitteregger, and existing investor Max Mitteregger.
Second volume order an important confirmation
With the production start in Karlskoga earlier this summer, we expect to see the first material impact from Saab-orders on reported sales numbers in Q3’23 at the earliest. However, from an investor perspective, the second volume order in June was a more important piece of the puzzle as it provided affirmation that Saab’s pipeline of orders for NLAW (from Finland of SEK 400m, UK of SEK 2.9bn and Sweden of SEK 900m) will also translate to KebNi. Furthermore, in order for Saab to meet its announced delivery schedule, this implies that KebNi would exceed its SEK 150-200m revenue target range in 2024, and that further follow-on orders should only be a matter of time.
Forecast of 7x revenue growth in 2022 to 2025
Having cleared both the issue with financing and follow-on volume orders from Saab, we now look forward to news about the international SatCom expansion, in Asia, the reception from customer of SensAItion and development of the JV ScaffSense (the world’s first smart scaffolding alarm system for safer construction sites). However, the primary catalyst for the share is likely to be the Saab volume orders feeding thorough to a significant increase in sales, subsequent earnings and positive cash flow in 2023-2026. Adjusting for the 9% dilution from the directed issue, we now find support for a fair value of SEK 1.7-2.7 (1.9-2.9) per share in 12-24m.
GENERAL DISCLAIMER AND COPYRIGHT
This commissioned research report is for informational purposes only and is to be considered marketing communication. This research does not constitute investment advice and is not a solicitation to buy shares. Information provided here or on Emergers' website emergers.se is not intended to be financial advice. This research shall not be construed as a recommendation or solicitation to invest in the companies described. Emergers cannot be held liable for either direct or indirect damages caused by decisions made on the basis of information in this analysis. Investors are encouraged to seek additional information as well as consult a financial advisor prior to any investment decision.
This material is not intended to be financial advice. This material has been commissioned by the Company in question and prepared and issued by Emergers, in consideration of a fee payable by the Company. Emergers charges a standard fee for the production and broad dissemination of a detailed note following by regular update notes. Fees are paid upfront in cash without recourse. Emergers may seek additional fees for the provision of roadshows and related IR services for the client but does not get remunerated for any investment banking services. We never take payment in stock, options or warrants for any of our services.
Accuracy of content: All information used in the publication of this report has been compiled from publicly available sources that are believed to be reliable, however we do not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of this report and have not sought for this information to be independently verified. Opinions contained herein represent those of the research analyst at Emergers at the time of publication. The company has been given the opportunity to influence factual statements before publication, but forecasts, conclusions and valuation reasoning are Emergers’ own. Forward-looking information or statements contain information that is based on assumptions, forecasts of future results, estimates of amounts not yet determinable, and therefore involve known and unknown risks, uncertainties and other factors which may cause the actual results, performance or achievements of their subject matter to be materially different from current expectations.
Exclusion of Liability: To the fullest extent allowed by law, Emergers shall not be liable for any direct, indirect or consequential losses, loss of profits, damages, costs or expenses incurred or suffered by you arising out or in connection with the access to, use of or reliance on any information contained in this material.
No personalised advice: The information that we provide should not be construed in any manner whatsoever as, personalised advice. Also, the information provided by us should not be construed by any subscriber or prospective subscriber as Emergers’s solicitation to effect, or attempt to effect, any transaction in a security. The securities described in this material may not be eligible for sale in all jurisdictions or to certain categories of investors. Investors are encouraged to seek additional information as well as consult a financial advisor prior to any investment decision.
Investment in securities mentioned: Emergers has a restrictive policy relating to personal dealing and conflicts of interest. Emergers does not conduct any investment business and, accordingly, does not itself hold any positions in the securities mentioned in this report. However, the respective directors, officers, employees and contractors of Emergers may have a position in any or related securities mentioned in this report, subject to Emergers' policies on personal dealing and conflicts of interest.
Copyright: Copyright 2021 Incirrata AB (Emergers)
This document is prepared and provided by Emergers for information purposes only and should not be construed as an offer or solicitation for investment in any securities mentioned or in the topic of this document. A marketing communication under FCA Rules, this document has not been prepared in accordance with the legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research.
This Communication is being distributed in the United Kingdom and is directed only at (i) persons having professional experience in matters relating to investments, i.e. investment professionals within the meaning of Article 19(5) of the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000 (Financial Promotion) Order 2005, as amended (the "FPO") (ii) high net-worth companies, unincorporated associations or other bodies within the meaning of Article 49 of the FPO and (iii) persons to whom it is otherwise lawful to distribute it. The investment or investment activity to which this document relates is available only to such persons. It is not intended that this document be distributed or passed on, directly or indirectly, to any other class of persons and in any event and under no circumstances should persons of any other description rely on or act upon the contents of this document.
This Communication is being supplied to you solely for your information and may not be reproduced by, further distributed to or published in whole or in part by, any other person.
Emergers relies upon the "publishers' exclusion" from the definition of investment adviser under Section 202(a)(11) of the Investment Advisers Act of 1940 and corresponding state securities laws. This report is a bona fide publication of general and regular circulation offering impersonal investment-related advice, not tailored to a specific investment portfolio or the needs of current and/or prospective subscribers. As such, Emergers does not offer or provide personal advice and the research provided is for informational purposes only. No mention of a particular security in this report constitutes a recommendation to buy, sell or hold that or any security, or that any particular security, portfolio of securities, transaction or investment strategy is suitable for any specific person.