Written by 08:00 Analys

Lovande försäljning, utmanande oljepris för Tallink


Tallink överträffade våra estimat för andra kvartalet i rad. Att öka försäljningen under ett år när det totala passagerarantalet är ner, visar på utmärkt operationell handlingskraft. Med lovande utsikter för försäljningen så ersätter oljepriset nu pandemin som den huvudsakliga riskfaktorn.

Mattias Wallander  | 2022-03-16 08:00

Denna uppdragsanalys är framtagen i samarbete med Enlight Research. Analysen är enbart i informationssyfte. Analysen är inte investeringsrådgivning och detta är inte ett erbjudande om att köpa aktier. För mer information om Enlight Research, se bolagets hemsida https://www.enlightresearch.net/

Kvartalsrapporten slog förväntningarna

Q4-rapporten visade att intäkterna från Restaurang & Butiker samt Biljetter slog våra estimat med 96% respektive 88% samtidigt som uthyrning av fartyg kom in 42% över prognos. Totala intäkter slog vår prognos med 70% vilket resulterade i en EBITDA på 25 MEUR (vårt estimat 6 MEUR). Den gedigna Q4-rapporten betyder att bolagets omsättning för 2021 steg med 8%, trots en minskning av passagerarantalet på 21%.

Återhämtning för försäljningen, trots ett utmanande oljepris

Sverige och Finland tog bort restriktionerna i februari och därför räknar vi med att antalet passagerare kommer öka 82% i år till 5,4 miljoner (55% av 2019 års nivå) och lägga grund för en försäljningsökning på 252 MEUR. Samtidigt uppskattar vi att bolagets bränslekostnad kommer att öka till 49 MEUR under 2022, vilket tar oss till break-even på EBIT. Vi räknar med ett litet positivt nettoresultat under nästa år (3 MEUR), även vid ett beräknat oljepris på 100 USD fatet (Brent).

Tillbaka till utdelningar 2024

Vi förväntar oss att de statliga lån som bolaget tagit upp ska vara helt återbetalda till 2024, vilket kommer att möjliggöra en utdelning på 0,02 EUR samma år. Vår DCF ger ett motiverat värde i Base-case på 0,92 EUR per aktie, vilket är i linje med vår normaliserade EV/EBITDA multipelvärdering per aktie.



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