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Equity Research of
Nordic Growth Companies

Written by 08:00 Okategoriserade

Tallink är redo för högsäsong

ANALYSSAMARBETE MED ENLIGHT RESEARCH 

Under årets första kvartal låg fokus på att skala upp kapaciteten inför högsäsongen, där större delen av helårets intjäning sker. Pax-återhämtningen har ökat snabbare än vi förväntat oss, men så har även bränslekostnaderna. Sammantaget ser vi fram emot en lönsam sommar.

Mattias Wallander  | 2022-05-19 08:00

Denna uppdragsanalys är framtagen i samarbete med Enlight Research. Analysen är enbart i informationssyfte. Analysen är inte investeringsrådgivning och detta är inte ett erbjudande om att köpa aktier. För mer information om Enlight Research, se bolagets hemsida https://www.enlightresearch.net/

Bygger upp kapaciteten
Efter att antalet anställda under Q1 utökats med 20% y-on-y, är kapaciteten nu tillbaka på nivåerna de låg innan pandemin på viktiga rutter (TAL – HEL, STO – HEL, STO – TUR). Endast ett fartyg, Victoria (STO – TAL), är avställt, medan fartygen mellan STO – RIG (Romantika, Isabelle) är uthyrda. Vi estimerar en högsäsongs-EBITDA (Q2, Q3) på 95 MEUR med avseende på det nära 100 procentiga kapacitetsutnyttjandet.
Utmaningar med bränslepriserna
Baserat på ett genomsnittligt Brentpris 2022 (106 USD), och 30% högre bränsleåtgång, förväntar vi oss att bränslekostnaderna stiger med 95% i år, till 141 MEUR. Idag används ett dyrare, men mer miljövänligt bränsle, vilket gör det mer utmanande att gå med vinst vid dagens oljepriser (vi förväntar oss förlust under 2022).
Motiverat värde indikerar uppsida
Baserat på en DCF-approach återupprepar vi vårt långsiktigt motiverade Base-case-värde på 0,92 EUR per aktie, vilket är i linje med vår normaliserade EV/EBITDA-värdering. Vi förväntar oss en Nettoförlust på 15 MEUR i år, och en mindre vinst 2023, följt av större vinst och utdelning under 2024.
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