ANALYSSAMARBETE MED ENLIGHT RESEARCH
Mattias Wallander | 2022-08-19 08:00
Denna uppdragsanalys är framtagen i samarbete med Enlight Research. Analysen är enbart i informationssyfte. Analysen är inte investeringsrådgivning och detta är inte ett erbjudande om att köpa aktier. För mer information om Enlight Research, se bolagets hemsida https://www.enlightresearch.net/
Q2 – bättre än förväntat
EBITDA för årets andra kvartal på 29 MEUR var högre än investerarnas förväntningar (aktien är +6% sedan rapportsläpp), medan de var 13 MEUR lägre än våra estimat. Justerar vi för den negativa effekt bränslepriserna har haft på 13,5 MEUR, var EBITDA i linje med vårt estimat på 42 MEUR.
Uthyrning är en kortsiktig intäktsström
Vi tror att uthyrning av fartyg, i alla fall kortsiktigt, är en viktig del av Tallinks affärsmodell. Under tredje kvartalet tror vi att uthyrningen, tillsammans med den fortsatta PAX-återhämtningen, kan överraska positivt och leda till en nettovinst på 25 MEUR. Dessutom kan uthyrningen komma att begränsa förlusterna under lågsäsongen (Q4’22-Q1’23) till -23 MEUR jämfört med en förlust på -43 MEUR under föregående lågsäsong.
Liten utdelning redan nästa år
Vi prognostiserar för en liten utdelning (0,01 EUR/aktie) redan nästa år, då vi förutser att bolaget når sina mål på eget kapital (40-50%) och nettoskuld/EBITDA på under 5x. Det motiverade värdet i vårt base case sänks något till 0,88 EUR/aktie (0,92 EUR), vilket reflekterar en långsiktig uppsida på runt 64%.
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