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Equity Research of
Nordic Growth Companies

Written by 08:00 Okategoriserade

TALLINK: Ingen oro inför lågsäsongen

ANALYSSAMARBETE MED ENLIGHT RESEARCH 

Både omsättning och vinst var över våra estimat i Q3. Rekordhöga uthyrningsintäkter kan leda till det bästa lågsäsongsresultatet på EBITDA-nivå på sju år. Högre räntekostnader döljer den operationella förbättringen nästa år, men blir synlig 2024, då vi också väntar oss att utdelningen återupptas.

Mattias Wallander  | 2022-11-16 08:00

Denna uppdragsanalys är framtagen i samarbete med Enlight Research. Analysen är enbart i informationssyfte. Analysen är inte investeringsrådgivning och detta är inte ett erbjudande om att köpa aktier. För mer information om Enlight Research, se bolagets hemsida https://www.enlightresearch.net/

Rekordhöga intäkter från uthyrning
Vi förväntar oss rekordhöga uthyrningsintäkter av fartyg på 59 MEUR för den stundande lågsäsongen (Q4/22-Q1/23). Starka uthyrningsintäkter förväntas leda till en EBITDA på 52 MEUR under lågsäsongen, den bästa sedan 2014/15.
Höga räntor döljer effektivisering
Under 2023 uppskattar vi en operationell förbättring (högre EBIT) på 28 MEUR, men vi prognostiserar även för att högre räntor kommer att öka räntekostnaderna med 18 MEUR, vilket skulle innebära en förbättring på 10 MEUR på EBT-nivå (+5 MEUR 2023E vs. -5 MEUR 2022E). För 2024E räknar vi med en EBT på 21 MEUR, vilken borde vara tillräcklig för att återuppta utdelningen till aktieägarna.
Övervinner utmaningar
De senaste två åren har ledningen framgångsrikt navigerat genom en pandemi och höga bränslepriser. Vi tror därför att ledningen framgångsrikt kommer att anpassa bolaget även till högre räntor under nästa år. Vi ser ett starkare och mer effektivt Tallink resa sig ur senaste årens motgångar, där effektiviseringar bör ge effekt 2024, då vi också räknar med att få se en utdelning igen. Vårt motiverade värde i Base case baserat på DCF är 0,82 EUR per aktie (0,88 EUR).
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