ANALYSSAMARBETE MED ENLIGHT RESEARCH
Mattias Wallander | 2023-03-07 08:00
Denna uppdragsanalys är framtagen i samarbete med Enlight Research. Analysen är enbart i informationssyfte. Analysen är inte investeringsrådgivning och detta är inte ett erbjudande om att köpa aktier. För mer information om Enlight Research, se bolagets hemsida https://www.enlightresearch.net/
Q4’22 bättre än vi räknat med
Omsättningen för Q4’22 ökade med 22% jämfört med samma period föregående år och landade på 204 MEUR, vilket var 2,9% bättre än vår prognos på 198 MEUR. EBITDA för perioden uppgick till 50 MEUR, 43% bättre än vårt estimat, och en fördubbling jämfört med Q4’21. Det starka fjärde kvartalet betyder att bolaget levererade 14 MEUR i vinst för helåret 2022, jämfört med vår förväntade förlust på 3 MEUR.
Tre saker investerare missar
Vi menar att investerare missar följande saker när de utvärderar Tallink, (a) starka kassaflöden som inte är fullt synliga i resultaträkningen, (b) en höglönsam uthyrningsverksamhet som blivit en permanent del av affärsmodellen, och (c) hälsosamma vinster trots stigande räntor.
Höjer estimat och motiverat värde
Vi har höjt vår prognos för omsättning och EBITDA för 2023 och 2024 med cirka 5% vardera. Vi räknar även med en utdelning på 0,01 EUR/aktie i år (jämfört med ingen utdelning tidigare). Vi har även höjt vårt motiverade värde i vårt Base case baserat på DCF till 0,85 EUR/aktie (0,82 EUR). Tallink handlas fortfarande på nivåerna under pandemin, medan de flesta baltiska aktier har gjort starka återhämtningar. Vi tror investerare gradvis kommer att omvärdera aktien när de starka kassaflödena, uthyrningsverksamheten och nettovinsterna blir mer synliga.
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