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Written by 08:00 Okategoriserade

TALLINK: Återhämtning till ett nytt normalläge

ANALYSSAMARBETE MED ENLIGHT RESEARCH 

Rapporten för det första kvartalet kom in över våra förväntningar och bekräftade en fortsatt återhämtning. Det är dock inte en återhämtning till det gamla vanliga, utan till ett nytt normalläge med högre båtcharterintäkter och högre avkastning på eget kapital. Vi höjer våra estimat och vårt motiverade värde.

Mattias Wallander  | 2023-05-12 08:00

Denna uppdragsanalys är framtagen i samarbete med Enlight Research. Analysen är enbart i informationssyfte. Analysen är inte investeringsrådgivning och detta är inte ett erbjudande om att köpa aktier. För mer information om Enlight Research, se bolagets hemsida https://www.enlightresearch.net/

Avsevärt bättre lönsamhet
Omsättningen för Q1’23 var 2% bättre än vår prognos, medan EBITDA på 27,1 MEUR var nästan dubbelt så högt som vårt estimat på 14,0 MEUR. Förlusten på 5,4 MEUR för perioden var uppmuntrande givet ett lågsäsongskvartal (estimerad förlust på 23,3 MEUR). Lågsäsongs-EBITDA (Q4’22-Q1’23) på 78 MEUR är det högsta någonsin för Tallink.
Nytt normalläge
Vi tror att Tallink nu återhämtar sig till ett nytt normalläge med fokus på avkastning på det egna kapitalet (ROE), vilket innebär att ett objektivt beslut fattas huruvida bolaget ska använda fartyg i den egna verksamheten, eller hyra ut. I vår mening innebär det högre andel hyresintäkter, färre antal anställda (bekräftat av att 500 personer sagts upp) och därmed högre ROE.
Höjer motiverat värde
Vi höjer vårt motiverade värde i Base case till 0,92 EUR per aktie med stöd av betydligt högre lönsamhetsestimat och en högre terminal-EBIT-marginal på 7,5% (7,0%). Vi förväntar oss en liten utdelning på 0,01 EUR redan i år, motsvarande en direktavkastning på 1,8%. Vi uppskattar att direktavkastningen ökar till 3,5% under 2024 och 7,0% under 2025.

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