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Written by 10:30 Analys, Research

Increased sales despite slow market return

MOTION DISPLAY Sales in Q1 was MSEK 6.1, in line with our estimate of MSEK 6. While peers battle supply chain disruptions and fail their sales target because of it, we note that Motion Display’s strategic purchases of key components has served the company well as it now stands ready to deliver on big orders with an inventory of components amounting to MSEK 7.4. Despite a contraction in order intake to MSEK 1.5 in the quarter, we see good reasons to keep our revenue estimate of MSEK 24 for the full year, as we expect a pickup driven by the high-potential US bar & restaurant market, which continues to support a fair value of SEK 2.8-3.3, in 12-24 months.

Andreas Eriksson | 2022-05-18 10:30

This commissioned research report is for informational purposes only and is to be considered marketing communication. This research report has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and Emergers is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research. This research does not constitute investment advice and is not a solicitation to buy shares. For more information, please refer to disclaimer.  
 
Strong sales highlight the first quarter
The report for Q1 2022 showed sales of MSEK 6.1, well above the MSEK 4.7 in Q1 2021, and just in line with our estimates of MSEK 6. This could be seen as a signal that Motion Display’s market is slowly returning to more solid ground. But we also note that order intake slowed down during the quarter. With MSEK 1.5 in order intake and an order book amounting to MSEK 2.7 at the end of Q1, we expect a deceleration in Q2. Although Motion Display has historically shown that big orders can turn the picture around quickly and unexpectedly, lead times are around three months to delivery, and with the company’s expansion into new sectors of the US bar & restaurant market in mind, we keep our sales estimate of MSEK 24 for the full year.
Strained liquidity but no cause for panic
Cash amounted to MSEK 1.5 at the end of Q1, however, we believe that the strained liquidity situation is a consequence of the strategic choice to secure components as the global supply chains has gotten increasingly worse, which forced sector colleague Pricer to issue a profit warning earlier this spring. As Motion Display’s inventory of components now amount to MSEK 7.4, we believe they are well prepared to handle inflow of orders in coming months. Combined with the cost control that was implemented during H2’21, we don’t expect any additional fundraising in the near future.
Attractive long term entry levels but with elevated risk
As the stock price has stagnated at levels around 1 SEK, we believe it offers an attractive entry level for the investor with some patience. Considering the impressive track record of the company’s products, it’s likely that Motion Display will be able to fight their way into becoming a big and recurring item in their existing customers’ marketing budgets. While only a small drop in the ocean for big giants like PepsiCo or Unilever, this would elevate Motion Display to the next level. The share price right now corresponds to an EV/Sales multiple of 0,8x 2022E whereas comparable peers trades at a range of 1.4-2.0x Sales. Based on a conservative WACC of 30% and target multiples of 1.4x Sales 2024 and 10x EBITDA 2024 we continue to see support for a fair value range of SEK 2.8-3.3 per share, i.e. well above today’s levels, in 12-24 months.
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