Crunchfish: Oversubscribed rights issue strengthens execution runway

Oversubscribed rights issue strengthens funding position

With the rights issue ultimately oversubscribed to 120%, Crunchfish has now materially improved its financial flexibility entering the commercialization phase. The transaction raised approximately SEK 15m gross at SEK 3.00 per share, a price above the March average trading level, while also attracting significant subscription interest beyond the original insider commitments. Combined with management’s continued communication around evaluating strategic investors, the financing outcome supports the view that the company is attempting to position itself for broader commercial scaling rather than merely securing short-term survival funding. As a capital raise was already included in our expectations for 2026, our rNPV estimates continue to support a potential value of SEK 5 per share, albeit resting on a number of highly speculative assumptions.

Strategic focus on the infrastructure layer

Operationally, Crunchfish continues to sharpen its positioning around governed offline payments as infrastructure rather than a standalone wallet feature. The Q1 report strongly reinforces management’s narrative that resilience is increasingly becoming a system-level requirement for modern digital payments rather than a niche functionality. During the quarter, the NPCI project in India progressed into an onboarding phase involving IDFC First Bank and Axis Bank, marking a transition from architecture discussions toward ecosystem implementation. At the same time, the partnership with UAE-based Mercury expands Crunchfish’s reach into the Middle East and Africa, where resilience and payment continuity are becoming increasingly prioritized across payment infrastructure modernization programs. The company also continues to broaden its strategic positioning around “Layer-2 governed payments”, emphasizing that offline capability can be introduced without modifying underlying settlement infrastructure, an important distinction in discussions with regulators, central banks and payment system operators. Additional patent progress, including the European decision to grant protection against fraudulent cloning of trusted applications, further strengthens the broader IP narrative around secure governed execution environments.

Broadened commercial narrative

The key investment case remains unchanged: whether Crunchfish can convert growing ecosystem engagement into commercial agreements with meaningful long-term economics attached. Importantly, management continues to broaden the commercial framing of the opportunity beyond transaction functionality itself, increasingly emphasizing the funding economics generated by reserved offline liquidity within regulated financial systems. The report repeatedly highlights how offline reservations could create scalable “float economics” shared between ecosystem participants, forming the basis for licensing and revenue-sharing models rather than transaction fees. While still highly conceptual and dependent on large-scale adoption, this narrative potentially expands the long-term addressable value pool considerably if Crunchfish succeeds in positioning itself at infrastructure level within future resilient payment ecosystems. In the near term however, the company remains pre-revenue from a commercial scaling perspective, and the investment case continues to depend on securing reference deployments capable of validating both the architecture and the commercial model. We therefore maintain our fundamentally speculative valuation framework while noting that the strategic positioning and international visibility of Crunchfish today appear materially stronger than a year ago.