Magnus Brolin & Johan Widmark | 2022-05-31 12:00
Increased investments in development in line with planQlucore reported 6% decrease in sales in Q4’21/22 (May-April) totaling revenue growth of 9% for the full year. The data analysis software Omics Explorer still dominate sales, with 200 active users both in academia and the industry. EBIT was -3.5 MSEK weighed down by higher development costs in Diagnostics and Insights, but also higher personnel costs after recruitments of e.g. management. Longer customer decision making processes and problems with reaching new customers due to residual pandemic effects also contributed to the negative operating result in Q4. Overall, Qlucore reported a result in line with our expectations for fiscal year of 2021/22.
Expanding project pipeline with bladder cancerThe development work continues to focus on improving Diagnostics and Insights and a more general version update for bioinformatics software Omics Explorer. Diagnostics and Insights are two software platforms offering AI-based machine learning for multi-omics companion and precision diagnostics with tailored classification models to help create individually adapted treatment for different types of cancer. Bladder cancer is the third classifier model launched by Qlucore in the area of solid tumours and was announced 23rd May. The company is currently preparing its CE mark application for Acute lymphocytic leukemia (ALL) but point out that there is some uncertainty with regards to a lack of capacity of “Notified Bodies” required in the application process, which might affect the timeline of the outcome.
Keeping our forecast and fair value SEKWe expect continued revenue growth in 22/23 driven by passing pandemic effects shortening customer decision processes and continued sales efforts to new customers. We expect the CE applications for the Diagnostics platform and ALL to be approved in about a year, in line with company guidance, and a subsequent increase in the number of labs to 70-100 labs by 2026/27. The addition of bladder cancer as the next classifier model development co-operation lends further support to our estimated number of tests per lab of 2,500-4,000 per year, which along with an estimated price per test of 1,000 SEK support the company’s sales target of 300 MSEK in 2026/27 and a 40% EBIT margin. Based on a combined DCF and multiple valuation we find continued support for a fair value of 53-75 SEK in 12-24 months.
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